What is up bills? Mafia. Welcome in to another episode of the Buffalo nerd. If this is your first time here, thanks for being here. It’s appreciated. Uh, if you’ve been listening and following along for the whole journey so far, You also are appreciated.
Thank you. You’re going to love today’s show where you’re going to jam into the Bill’s offense. And we’re going to get deep into the numbers. We are going to be chatting it up with Josh Larkey today, and he is going to be the man over at rotor underworld, who is the director of analytics. So I think if we’re going to get deep dives into the numbers, today’s going to be the day.
So I’m super excited about that. And we’re also going to chat up a really awesome charity. So before we get into everything, Josh, why don’t you go ahead and introduce yourself? Let the people know
who. I’m Josh , I’m the director of analytics. It wrote a wonder world and player profile or.com. And you can find me on Twitter @Jlarkytweets
I’m excited to be here because the bills are actually one of my favorite teams right now, since as an analytics guy, as most people know, we have just been aggressively pounding the table for teams to pass the ball more. And that is what the bills did this past season. And it looks like they’re set up for more of the same.
So this is a team that I am very excited about. Well, not my personal team to root for. It’s one of those teams that I respect what they’ve done in the front office. And they’re going to be, uh, a lot of fun this year, just like last year. So let’s do.
Yeah, I think that’s a really awesome piece of all this, right.
Is that the team is cool and they’re doing really good right now. And everybody’s kind of interested in what they’re up to. So, but before we get into any of the football stuff, um, because Josh actually has like a really awesome program, we’re going to chat up today that I’ve been dying to learn a little bit about.
So before we get into that, though, we always like to chat up a charity here at the nerd. Everybody knows that. So this week Josh got to choose that charity and we’re going to be talking up feeding. Right. And I think some people might be familiar with, you know, feeding America, if you’re not, you’re going to be after today.
And that’s the whole point of what we’re doing here. So Josh, why don’t you go ahead and let everybody know why you chose feeding
America. So feeding America, basically just a huge network of food banks around the nation, and I’ve volunteered with them before. And the reason that I chose feeding America is because.
I think there’s very few things that someone can accomplish in life if they’re hungry. And I think there’s two or three main things that everyone needs. Like you need some type of shelter, you need some type of education and you need to be. Well fed. So I think that kind of fits in where it’s very difficult to succeed in life and to get anywhere if you are just completely starving.
So that’s why I think it’s really important is that I just enjoy eating. I think pretty much everyone does to some extent or another. And I think that that is just still something that’s under discussed is how important, just especially with kids in a lower income areas is the disadvantage that they have.
Even if they’re going to school, if you’re hungry, While in class that you’re just not going to learn at the same rate. So that’s why I think it’s important. It’s just raising awareness that there’s so many people out there that do have food insecurity every single day.
Absolutely. And I think, especially just coming out of the pandemic and everything like that, right.
People are more people are in that situation that we’ve ever probably had before. So it’s definitely cool to highlight organizations like feeding America. They are everywhere is, I mean, there’s over 200 food banks across the country and there might be one in your backyard. That’s the other thing that I kind of like about doing this with highlighting the charities each week is right.
I don’t have all the money in the world. Kind of stuff, but maybe you got time. Food banks are definitely one of those locations that if you can volunteer some hours, that kind of stuff, that’s a way you can help out even just spreading the word to somebody else. That’s what we’re trying to do. So Josh, thanks for bringing it up.
It’s an awesome charity. Of course, like we do every week, everything will be in the show notes. So if you guys can’t find them, they firstname.lastname@example.org, but it will be down there. So you can just click on it and it’ll take you right over. You can find out more about them or you can just go ahead and donate or find out where you can come and volunteer, you know, some of your time.
So it’s pretty cool. Josh you are into numbers, I would say, right? Yeah. I would say
I have a, an, a pretty unhealthy obsession with, with the stats. Okay. Okay. So,
so, okay. It’s safe to say that you’re a bit of a nerd in the numbers department. So you developed this whole R coding course, right? So tell me a little bit about this coding course.
What’s it all about?
So I think just people out there, anyone that’s listening, who doesn’t know how to code, it’s probably terrifying just to even imagine learning to code. That’s how it was for me. I know it’s how it is for a lot of people. I really wanted to get into sports analytics actually for several years.
Before I started learning how to code and it’s because I was just intimidated. I had my Excel spreadsheets and I heard people throwing around scary terms like R and Python and Java. And I thought, you know what? I don’t want any of that. This sounds terrifying. And I’d heard from people that it was really difficult and there was a lot of homework and yeah.
Completely procrastinated until my senior year of college, I started taking coding classes to be able to get into grad school, to learn more coding. So I kind of put it off like three to five years more than most people do that are in this industry and even when I was in grad school, learning advanced, analytical coding, I didn’t find it very fun.
I truly didn’t enjoy grad school because all the data sets that we were analyzing, it was we’re going to find the credit card fraud. And it’s hard to get passionate about finding that or we’re going to analyze what makes a house so expensive. We’re going to look at two bedroom, three bedroom, one bath, two bath square footage, and we’re going to predict how expensive house.
I really couldn’t care less about that either. What I would do in grad school is everything that I learned in class on the weekends. I would practice those concepts with baseball and football datasets, because there’s a lot of those data sets that are publicly available. And that’s kind of how I would teach myself and reinforce the concepts and I love doing it.
And I felt like there was this gap in the market where sports fans are very intimidated to learn to code, but they also love numbers. And that if you think about there’s so much in sports, that’s numbers focused there’s box scores for every sport. So I thought as someone that’s been working in the fantasy football industry, I should make a course where I teach analytics in R coding using football datasets, and that it’s a more fun way to do it.
And I felt like I could make a really efficient program because so much of learning to code in school, it’s very similar to a math class. The teacher tells you a lecture. It all makes sense. In class two, plus two is four and you’re like, oh, this is great. Two plus two is four. I’ve got it. And you look at the homework assignment, it goes solve for X 50 X time, something, something, something.
And next thing you know, you are just on Google all night, figuring out how to do your homework. So I try and make it fun with the football data. And I just give you the answers. So all the homework assignment, homework assignments in quotes, because I mean, technically you don’t have to do anything. It’s, it’s a completely on your own time learning.
What, if any kind of assignments associated with it? I have the answers available in case you want to cross reference. Everything that I teach in the lessons is what you’re actually going to be using for the assignments. So I think that giving people the answers to the test, especially when they learn how to code at the early stages is critical.
To making it more efficient and fun. So that’s, that’s what I try and do with my course that R coding site.
Yeah. I mean, I think that’s pretty, uh, important that last piece right. It already sounds like it’s going to be hard enough. And I imagine some people would get to the point where they think that they know it, so they would kind of just move on.
But realistically having the answer there, they can look and go, yeah. Oh no, I don’t have it. You know, I was way off. Right. So you go back. So it’s building a good base, right? I mean, to make sure before you move forward. So basically it’s truly a coding course, but we’re just doing all football data and it’s, you know, just all data-driven from football that makes it a lot more fun to get engaged.
I think the numbers come to life more when it’s football data, because I mean, if I’m looking at credit card fraud and I’m looking at this data set, and one of the variables is time of the transaction. And another variable is brand of credit card. It’s really hard to enjoy that compared to you have a data set of receiving yards and targets touchdowns.
It’s a lot easier for the numbers to come to life and you go, oh man, I can totally envision that guy catching that touchdown or you look and go, wow, this guy had. Receiving touchdowns this year, he had a great season and that you can have those little micro insights and aha moments and having stuff come to life as you’re doing the analytics work.
And I think that’s super critical, especially for new people being able to stick with it and power through and truly learn how to.
That’s very cool. And, uh, some of the stuff that you’re teaching in there is it stuff that people can actually take and utilize like for fantasy or any of that stuff as they’re doing it?
You can use it for fantasy football. Uh, the actual concepts that I teach the analytical concepts, those are just a cross industry, analytical concepts I’ve worked, uh, On the business side, I’ve worked on the sports side in my analytics career. And these are concepts that I’ve used on both ends. So if you wanted to be an analyst at a bank, which personally I would not recommend that doesn’t sound very fun, but if you want it to do that and you want it to be the credit card fraud person, well, you could do that well after taking my course, you would be able to handle that data.
I just, yeah. I mean, why would you do that? But if you want it to, yes, you could. So yeah. Fantasy football, however you want. These are just, uh, industry agnostic, data analysis tools taught with. I love it.
So it says on there, on the site I’ve been to it, you’ve got over 600 hours poured into it, right? So you can go to that R coding site.com.
Correct. That’s what it is. And of course, that’ll be in the show notes and you guys can check out the course and what Josh has got going on over there. So obviously since he’s building things like this, we’re going to get some good numbers today. I think, uh, the folks probably at wrote underworld and player profile, aren’t just letting anybody.
Be their director. Right. So I’m really hoping to get some insight today because I think a lot of people tend to not realize that fantasy football can tell us a lot about a team. Right. And it can actually help us project what a, team’s going to be better than just trying to listen to your people, talk about the team that know the team and you know, or whatever in quotes there, you know, but, so I’m curious to hear where you are in the bills.
And I think that we’re going to talk on offense today, right? We might as well just start at the top. Cause we know who the main study is on the team of QB one, Josh Allen, but there’s a lot of talk of regression, possibly. What could happen? This, that, and the other. Where does he sit for you this season? As far as quarterback ranks go, are we going to see the same amount of Josh Allen?
Do you anticipate something completely different close
to yeah, I haven’t projected actually fairly similarly to last season. There were, there were no smoke and mirrors with his, his actual analytical profile. It’s not like he was one of those guys that was just getting lucky all season. He actually showed, demonstrated improved accuracy and the bills also had a faster paced offense, a higher pass rate in neutral situations, which essentially means that in prior years, on first down, they were much more likely for random.
First down happens Bill’s of prior seasons frequently ran. Last year’s bills. Uh, anyone that watched, noticed, uh, Zach Moss, Devin Singletary, we’re not getting a whole lot of caries in that this really wasn’t passed first off. And I think that, I mean, we all saw just how successful the offense was last year compared to prior years.
So I don’t see any reason that they would dial back the passing. The, the personnel looks really similar. I know they lost John Brown, but they gained Emmanuel Sanders. I think that’s a fairly one for one swap. We now have year two of the digs Allen connection. We have another year of Gabe Davis with Josh Allen.
So I think that everything’s kind of setting up where Josh Allen is going to be in a really similar situation. And unless for some reason they completely abandoned the past, which I don’t see happening. Then everything about Josh Allen’s year three leap looks right. Yeah, I really
like it. And I mean, to me, it’s the same thing.
I think I’ve mentioned that a couple of times, this past couple of weeks where it’s been, they didn’t change very much. Right. So, yes. Yeah. I feel like you might see a regression in his stats a little bit, just because they’ve run game might pick up a little bit here or there. So there might be a little bit less, but I don’t really see that there’s going to be a regression in his play overall.
So would you say he’s still going to be top five
for sure. Yeah, I have him in the sort of that top tier of quarterback. I think the, the top four can be a little fungible with my homes. Josh Allen, Kyler, Murray, Lamar Jackson, I think just kind of, depending on what you think about each of those guys, those do seem to be the top four.
They are for me, they are for a lot of people. So. Within that Josh Allen could be the key one. He could be number four out of those guys, but I think they’re all going to be within one, one and a half fantasy points, a game and a statistically. I think there’ll all be throwing for like 4,500 plus passing yards rushing to various degrees.
So I think Alan will probably rush a tiny bit less. This year. We’ll have year two exact model. He’ll be hopefully healthy all season. So I do think Alan’s Carrie’s will be scaled back a tiny bit, but I don’t think they’re going to limit him in the red zone. I think that’s one thing that’s really exciting about draw Shalon statistically, is that he, I mean, he’s a huge bodied quarterback.
And he clearly makes really savvy decisions in the red zone, especially at the goal line. That’s one thing, actually that even before he broke out last year, he was actually an incredibly efficient red zone quarterback, which I always found really interesting that he was kind of terrible between the twenties, his first two years, but the, in the red zone, he was not throwing interceptions.
He was getting his rushing touchdowns, making good decisions. So I think those kinds of things show that there was some type of foundation there that he kind of built on loss.
Yeah, I really liked, I just wrote some about that too. That him and Lamar both are kind of like, that’s the thing when you’re trying to think of, but what running backs you want is those are kind of your RB ones and the goal line situations are your QB ones and both of those teams.
Right? So I think Josh is gonna have another phenomenal year, as long as he stays healthy. And I agree with the John Brown to Emmanuel Sanders, I, I actually almost think that a manual might be a step up just because of the way that he runs. Right. Uh, compared to what John Brown brought, but I’m pretty interested to see what’s going to happen there.
But before we jump to the, a wide receivers, you brought up Zach Moss and he brought up Singletary and their inability to get handoffs in our opportunities to even touch the ball. And we’ve kind of talked about it already. We’re anticipating similar this year. Do you anticipate either one of them are gonna make or break this year or are they not even going to see enough?
Do you think.
So I’ve projected Zach Moss to kind of become the leader in this backfield. And there’s a few reasons behind that. So one of them is that Singletary and Moss have pretty comparable athleticism. Similarly, fast, similarly, agile. The difference is that Zach Moss is 20 pounds heavier than Singletary, and that’s really important for an NFL running back.
At least always been important for coaches. Historically the bigger running backs generally get more work with the, the thinking, being that the bigger body can handle more tasks. And hold up better. And I think they’ve kind of grew up. They were trying to groom Zach Moss for that role sort of towards the end of last season when he was consistently out carrying Devin Singletary.
And he was also getting more goal line work. So some of the more higher value touches were already beginning to go to Zach Moss. And then also I know people probably think anytime there’s a smaller running back, this is the past. But Moss’s pass, catching resume in college is actually more impressive than Singletary.
And I think that’s really interesting and I do believe. With his resume in college and Singletary, Terry’s really inefficient route running and kind of yards per target yards per route run. Basically every efficiency metric has shown that Singletary runs a ton of routes. He just never gets open and doesn’t get targeted.
So I do think they’re going to start to shift over as well to Zack Moss. I think this is a very competent coaching staff with what they showed last year. And I think that they’re going to get it right in that the bigger guy. The same athleticism and the better receiving background as well. We’ll start to pull up.
I really like that. You said all that, because that’s pretty much what I just said, uh, myself, uh, here recently, as I’ve been saying, since they drafted him last sure. That he’s built for the offense he’s, he’s played in some cold weather when he played at Utah. I mean, he’s, he’s built to be on the field and take the hits, be up the middle, catch the ball.
He’s just built for the offense. So last year I thought he would break out and he, I felt like he was until he got hurt, that he was showing that he was going to be the guy in the backfield. So this season, I do think that. I know motor has put in some work. He looks completely different this off season.
So we’ll see if that translate on onto the field for him. But do you think Matt Brita sneaks into this mix at all? Or I’m not even sure he’s going to make the team, but what do you. Uh,
no, I don’t think so. I believe that if he was just completely shelved, basically from week one, for four miles Gaskin loss season, even after getting the contract, when Gaskin was making seventh round pick money and Brita was getting four or 5 million, whatever.
He was making millions and still couldn’t get on the field. So I don’t see how he’s going to unseed Mosser Singletary. It’s also just a lower volume running attack. So even if he’s the occasional third running back mixing in, that could be 40 carries over the course of the season. So I really think that even if he makes the team he’s most likely just a non-factor at this time.
Got it. So obviously I think that everybody kind of feels the same way about the bills backfield. Like everybody I’ve talked to, it’s kind of an unsettling situation. Cause we didn’t really get to see much last year. So it’s just pick your poison. I think most people are leaning Moss first before Singletary.
And I agree with that. I think that’s the way I would go too. But the real room, I think that’s the challenges of, you’re not going to go up and get Mr. Diggs and make him the top priority that you’re going to try to get there. Offense behind them that, you know, the numbers are going to be there, but what, where do you rank these guys?
What do you think this is going to look like behind digs as digs going to perform?
Yeah, I think days can perform. Similarly. I know that his season last year was a big surprise and it’s because everyone was thinking that the bills would be lower volume. Josh Allen, no one was projecting that he’d overnight become one of the two or three most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.
But if you trace back Dave, To Minnesota. He had a couple seasons where he was commanding a similar target share, and that the reason that he may never have had quite the stats kept with Buffalo was that it wasn’t as good of an offense. And it was never a super high volume passing attack, but he had shown that he was a 25% plus target share, which is kind of like what the super alphas get.
So this wasn’t a guy that had been a complimentary wide receiver commanding very small chunks of an offense, and then overnight becoming a stud. He had actually already demonstrated that we had just never seen. In an elite and fast paced all offense before. So that’s why I think it’s totally legitimate.
Obviously it surprised me too, but the surprise wasn’t necessarily the share of the pie that he got last year. It was more how big the pie was turning to, uh, who next man up is. I think Cole, Beasley’s the wide receiver to here. I know there’s been a lot of talk of, oh, Gabe Davis. He’s so exciting. I don’t want to poop too much on these Gabe Davis people, but I don’t think this is the wide receiver.
I don’t think he’s a wide receiver three right now, either. I think this is still the wide receiver. This is a day three pick who commanded a 10 and a half 11% target share last season, which that’s fine for a rookie, but in context, Cole Beasley had a 20% target share. Cole Beasley was basically getting two times as many targets when he was on the field with Gabe David.
And I don’t think that’s going to change. Beasley was playing hurt last year and still was doing that Beasley actually higher target share. Two years ago, we had a 23% target share. So those that were surprised about Beasley, like I was last year, it was not because of his share of the pie. It was once again, the pie just increased Beasley had already demonstrated he was a high target share kind of guy LA uh, two years ago with Allen.
I think Beasley is still the clear number two. And I think that Sanders is the clear number three. I’ve read some beat reports that kind of echo that as well, and Sanders was commanding a 18, 19% target share loss. In new Orleans. So we have three guys commanding like a 20% plus target share and it gave Davis the day three rookie with a 10 to 11% target share.
I just think there’s so much ground for him to make up. And the cautionary tale that I’ve thrown out there is Anthony Miller. Anthony Miller’s working season, just like Gabe Davis gets seven touchdowns. Receiving and one in five of his catches as a rookie was a touchdown for both Anthony Miller and Gabe Davis.
And that’s what I’m afraid of is that nobody would be talking about Gabe Davis if he had two receiving touchdowns. And that part of it is he had the incredible game for over a hundred yards against Miami end of season, and that he had seven touchdowns. So that’s why I think it right now. Ellie’s preseason.
I have it as a clear packing order of digs, Beasley, Sanders, David.
Uh, that’s, that’s pretty. And I like that actually, cause I’ve been, I’ve been pushing this off season a little bit that I feel like Emmanuel Sanders is going to have like his best season that he’s had probably even going back to the season he had in Denver when he was across from Demaryius, maybe like his second year in Denver, he had a really good year.
It is. He hasn’t been across from oversea for that. Is that good? And I do believe that this coaching staff will still lean. With the veteran over a rookie in any situation, unless it’s just a clear cut, he’s blowing them out of the water. And I think gave Davis, his issue is still at this point has only just been separation he’s he’s not really great at separation yet, but he can make the gorgeous catches and he can do all that because of the big body, which is awesome.
But it does take a little more than just that, you know, in the NFL. So I agree with that. The only thing that shakes it all up obviously is if Cole decides that he’s. You know, hold out, like he says, he’s going to, or whatever it’s going to turn into. And then things could definitely change up at that point.
I mean, at that point, you, uh, do you see Isaiah McKenzie getting a larger role? Or would you say that it truly just slides everybody up the ladder?
I guess yes. By osmosis, Mackenzie gets bigger role, but you don’t see guys like that very often having a real role outside of a gadget role. I think he’s 5, 7, 1 75.
And I generally don’t like betting on players in the NFL that looked like me. If I walked down the street and don’t, double-take at a guy’s physique, they probably aren’t going to be a focal point of an NFL offense. If you’re five, seven, you better be over 200 pounds like Singletary 5, 7, 1 75. This is a very slight guy.
I believe this is a special team gadget guy. That’s kind of how he’s been used in the NFL. I think he’s very good in that role, but I don’t think he takes a major step up. I think if anything, they would just shift to two more, three wide receiver sets with a tight end and running back out there running 11 personnel.
But yeah, I, I think Beasley’s going to play it. Whatever you think about his politics? Uh, I don’t think there’s much historical precedent for a guy who’s never won a super bowl being totally set up to be the wide receiver too, on a Superbowl contending offense and turning that down. So that’s why I just can’t logically.
I just can’t get on board with him actually retiring. And then also, I mean, Josh Allen has not been the most vocal vaccine supporter. So it’s not like Josh Allen is yelling at everyone to take the vaccine and Beasley’s not. So I think that there’s a lot of support there where ultimately they’re good friends.
And I think Josh Allen suits up, which he’s going to Beasley wills.
Yeah. I mean, I think this is going to find some solution at one point or another, or the in the NFL PA will stand in enough of a way to at least make it rough for the NFL to enforce something for a season to where everybody can play, no matter what it is, right.
Maybe he has to wear a mask while he’s at the facility or something different, you know, than everybody else. But I, I foresee him playing too. I mean, we’re talking about a guy that’s going to be what, 32 next year. There’s not many more opportunities to get a bowl. Right. And this is going to be probably it.
I mean, I don’t know that he’ll be around for sure next year anyway, so this would kind of be the last hurrah in my eyes realistically. So I agree with you. In that if we had to shift to a three wide receiver set and we’re going to roll the tight end out there a little bit, let’s move over to the tight ends.
We got Mr. Dawson Knox who can make the incredible grab, but can’t tech tend to catch it when he’s wide open. Um, but, and then we brought in Hollister this season who I’m actually fairly intrigued about, but what do you think the Bill’s tight end is going to look like this year? Anything worthwhile or just another non-existent thing, because there’s not enough left to go
So I think there’s actually a lot of moving parts. If Beasley doesn’t play, then I think the tight end can actually be a really fruitful position just because it’s such a high volume attack. And that, I mean, Gabe Davis was fantasy football relevant at times last year, even with only 11% market share, which a lot of tight ends in this league, especially starters have.
So I think that you could pretty easily have someone that’s on people’s radar if Beasley doesn’t play. However, I think there’s another variable in here, which is I keep reading about Zack. Potentially going to Buffalo. And I think that makes sense kind of all around where you get the polished veteran and then you can kind of, you can do more three wide receiver sets and have a little bit of a rotation.
Beasley and Sanders have both had some injuries the past few years they’re in their thirties. They’re slight of frame. And I think it would be kind of nice to be able to have those guys getting 60 to 70% snap shares rather than trying to. 80 to 90% snap shares for them. So I think if IRTs comes, he’ll become interesting between Knox and Hollister I side with Knox, just because he’s very athletic and he’s young.
And if we just think about how a lot of these tight end breakouts happen, it’s frequently a young, tight end who’s entering year three year four with great athleticism and just kind of raw talent, but hasn’t put it together yet. There there’s a lot of these kind of rough around the edges. Unpolished guys.
We’ll put it together. So that’s why I think he has kind of a better chance to do it than Hollister. I just feel like if Hollister couldn’t beat out, players like will dislike playing in Seattle. I don’t really see how he’s going to beat out. What I think is a superior talent in Dawson. So I think Hollister will be a goal line thread at times with some too tight end sets, but I don’t really see him having any type of regular role in the less, uh, something happens with Knox or Hollister has some incredible camp.
I think it’ll be Dawson. Noxon probably a similar role to last year where if possible, they’re going to go for wide receiver sets. That was what they were. That was what was most effective and efficient last year. So I think in life, Uh, something happens to Beasley or there’s an injury to one of those receivers that it’ll be a lot of the four wide receiver sets.
Yeah. I mean, that’s just one of those things, right. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Right. I mean, just keep working at it and keep getting better at doing what you’re doing until they prove they can stop it. But have, for me, Hollister’s role is the least Smith role last year, which should amount to about three red zone touchdowns potentially.
Right. Just because of the connection, but Knox, I think he, as much as I I’ve been giving him a hard time and everything, I do believe he is suited up this year to actually make an impact and be the guy and show that he can be the guy, which would be awesome because he is young and yeah. Good looking tight end.
I mean, he has all the pieces. It looks like to me, hopefully tied in university, helps them out a little bit. I’ve been anti the Zachary stuff. Uh, just because the money, uh, unless, unless Philadelphia is going to pick up most of his tab, I’m not really down for it because we don’t really have the money in with Josh Allen do.
And maybe admin’s getting his paycheck next year. I just don’t see us spending the money. I’d rather believe that Dawson Knox can do it for a season, or we just don’t really use the physician that often, like we did last year. Right. I mean, it’s just keeps, it keeps the wide receivers rolling,
but yeah, the money is a good point.
I’m not familiar with the bills cap situation as a non-fan of the team, but yeah, I would, I would not endorse anything. Shelves, uh, uh, Josh Allen extension just
or something like that. We’ve got like 9.8 right now in cap. So it’s like, I, it just, if they want to eat up most of his salary and take like a fourth round pick, then you know sure.
I would be down for it then, but I don’t think they’re going to do that. Yeah. You know, especially if they still believe he’s worth it. So we’re kind of coming up on the half hour again, close here, but I know you’ve mentioned it a little bit prior. Uh, you want to sneak in a little Scott fishbowl. How has your experience been?
Is it been a good, uh, you feel good about your team? Are you guys done
well? No, we’re not done. We are in round 16. It’s been slow. There is someone from England in my draft and he has the turn pick. So he had the head, the first overall pick, et cetera, and I’m on the west coast. So he, he seems to be going to sleep.
At like three, 4:00 PM Pacific time. So my draft is basically just done by that time. So we kind of have a very limited window for our draft of when we can draft. So we’re still in the 16th round. How about you?
It’s going pretty smooth then we are actually, um, we’re heading into the last round. So I’ve got one night.
So, um, it’s towards the end cause I was 10. So I’m, uh, I’m waiting just towards the end to take my final pick and then we’ll call it good. It went pretty smooth. Uh, it really came out of the gates fast and then, uh, some of the overnight stuff and like, there was a couple of spots where it really slowed. Um, but then it would kind of jam back up again.
been fun. Nice. Yeah, I can actually say that I have a bills guy on my team. I took Cole Beasley and Jerry high on him this year, compared to consensus I, as the, as a stats guy, I just try and block out some of the rumors. And if you just look at strictly what he’s done on the football field, the last two years, he’s been in elite separator who commands targets.
So I was able to get Cole Beasley. Where did I get him? I got him in the 13th round as wide receiver, 52. He’s been a wide receiver too, basically two years in a row now and looks to have the exact same role. So I don’t quite know what I’m missing. I think he’s great for this format. Cause you kind of want a volume guy when you’re getting a point for first downs.
You want someone that’s getting a ton of catches and hopefully getting a lot of those as first downs. So I thought that was. Actually one of my best value picks. So what we’ll see what happens, but I went QB early and then I’ve just kind of filled in the rest. So I went Lamar Tannehill to get to accurate quarterbacks who don’t throw interceptions because this format’s minus four for interception.
So I wanted to guys that I could probably bank on single digit interceptions.
Your, uh, your team is, I, uh, did not take quarterback early and I immediately started seeing that it was gonna hurt me immediately. Right. And so, uh, I mean, I’m okay. Um, I’m kind of happy with where I’m at. I’m going to go back and look at it when it’s all said and done, but I actually started out with, uh, Henry and Zeke and then took digs in the third and then.
I think I got to the fourth and realized there was like no quarterbacks left so that the, the panic set in and I went Kirk cousins, uh, which I was okay. I liked her. And then I actually successfully didn’t think this would take place, but a couple of rounds later, I was able to get land and get a little stack on the, in the kind of middle there that I was not planning on doing.
Um, it just happened to fall to me. I could have done it right away. And then I was like, uh, Keenan Allen was there and I’m a big Keenan Allen fan. So I was like, I’m going, Keenan Allen. And then I came back around and Thielen was still there. So I was like, oh, I should probably just do it. Just to see, I mean, can’t hurt.
Yeah, I really, it’s funny because I’ve been doing a lot of stacking research. Recently. I had a podcast on it. I have an article coming out soon on player profile or about it, and I believe my league mates have all been looking at my Twitter activity. Seeing that it’s been all about stacking. They have sniped the shit out of me.
So I have Lamar and Tannahill a couple picks before me Aja brown went a couple of rounds back. I was teeing up Rashad Bateman. So he of course went one pick before me. And that’s Andrew’s went like two picks before me. It’s basically been every Titans. Uh, Ravens receiving option goes right before me, when I thought reached pretty heavily on FERC server.
So I couldn’t even get FERC’s or it was pretty crazy. I was looking at like my draft board and I was like, wow, these guys are just flying off the board. So I actually
zero stacks to my name. I snuck in yeah, a little bit later too, that I was just like, well, I might as well as I got a little early. At tight end as well.
So I actually have the whole, I have the whole little stack set and ready to go to see if Minnesota can happen to do. I just, I feel like they’re all friends should still be productive. It’s more about if the defense is gonna what the defense is gonna do for that team. Right. I mean, for me, I think Kurt’s still got some magic in that arm and he’s thrown it still two stud wide receivers, and you’ve got one of the best backs in the NFL.
So, I mean, hopefully it’ll work.
If you have a pick left, I would recommend Tyler Conklin as well and grabbing both tight ends because towards the end of last season, little known, but Tyler Conklin was getting more snaps than Irv Smith. So I think he’s actually going to be kind of annoying potentially to a lot of herb Smith owners with the ultra tight end premium.
I think it’s kind of nice to load up on a lot of tight ends just in case, because for those listening, this is half PPR and you get half a point for first down. Tight ends. It’s full PPR and you get a full point for first downs. So everything is double. So if your tight end has a 50 catch season, that’s like a receiver having a 100 catch season.
So all the tight end stuff is just crazy elevated like that. Uh, so Conklin could be a kind of a fun one. It’s one of the few times that I’ll actually grab two tight ends from the same team. Cause I think they’re both pretty affordable and I don’t think it’s 100% clear cut who the guy was. Yeah,
and I, I could use a little magic probably in my tight end room anyway, because now I have Hooper Irv, Knox, Doyle, and then I’ve just kind of been sitting there at the end of the next guy was going to go with, actually, since nobody’s gonna hear this until this is over now, anyway, uh, I was gonna go with the Raiders back up my row.
Yeah. If it happens to go down, that’s a lot of target share there potentially. So
that’s an interesting one. Yeah. I haven’t really thought as much. Grabbing the, the backup tight end in that sense. But I like the idea. I was thinking of just my final few picks, grabbing either upside tight ends like a Mo Allie Cox or Dan Arnold random guys that might, might get a decent amount of snaps.
And then just a few random running backs. Yeah, I think that
Dan, all one can be sneaky. Good too. I think I liked that offense, actually. I think he might actually have a cool role there. Yeah.
Had the most yards per reception out of tie-downs last year, he had the highest target depth. He’s not really a tight end, which I like for tight ends.
Yeah. I want them to be as untight end as possible. Well, now I’ve
got three names that I got to look for. So, you know, you’re just making this diff more difficult for me on my last pick. Now I’m going to be like looking at these three guys all day. Now
I just want my tight end and fantasy too. And to not run tight on routes.
So Dan Arnold looks nothing like a typical tight end, which is why he’s intriguing to me is that he’s the kind of guy that can have some big games and kind of gives you the upside of maybe he’ll get some slots in the snap. You never really know, but he looks like he won’t be used like a tight end.
very cool. I’m going to have to say now those are my three names that I’m going to be going into the last pick with then. So we’ll see if any of them survive because I’m sure everybody else that’s in this stuff is pretty good too. I mean, there’s some guys in there that every time around they’re taking my guy, I’m like, damn it, man.
Like, this is never going to work. You can’t have a plan coming into this thing. Cause there’s just too many people in there. There are sharks that are just like waiting there, patiently for their guy. It’s been fun to watch and see, and it’s been a blast being part of the whole thing all together. Is this your first year
Yeah. First year. Yeah, same. Yeah. It’s been a lot of fun involved in the, in fantasy football for several years prior to this year, I was always behind the scenes. Yeah. I was completely hidden away doing coding on the backend. Right. So putting a little, it’s been fun to become more high profile this year and actually show my face rather than just being completely hidden from view.
It’s been fun to do that.
Yeah. I mean, it’s been a blast. And so since we’re getting ready to close out and your face is out of the closet, then, uh, is again, anything else coming up that you want to shout out before we get out of here?
I would say check out my Codebreaker podcast. If you go to the Rodo underworld podcast, feed Spotify, apple podcast, basically wherever there’s podcasts, roto, underworld.
Check out the art of stacking. It’s a podcast that I released last week. I detailed very in depth, the theory and the math behind why you should be stacking and pairing your quarterback with their receiving options. And then I’ll also have an article coming out sometime this week on player profile or.com as well.
Further elaborating on that. There’s going to be some super cool graphics and tables in that article, courtesy of our content intern for the summer. Jessie she’s been crushing it. So this is going to be a really fun article. So definitely check those out. If you’re curious at all about stacking, we and want to learn more about why you should be.
Absolutely. And we’ll make sure we got links to all that stuff in the show notes, because this will be coming out next week. So I’m sure you’ll have all that stuff out already. So we’ll get it all linked up and everything will be in there for everybody to catch up with. All right, everybody. Thanks for being here again this week.
Uh, you’re appreciated for showing up, uh, make sure you’re spreading the word, you know, about, uh, feeding america.org. Obviously, that was our charity for this week. So it’s very cool. We’ll have everything in there for you guys. Connect with them. Everything I’m up to is email@example.com. And we will see you guys next week.
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